The Band Bubble Breakdown
The saga continues...
You’ve heard whispers, seen online discussion forum posts, and read Facebook comments alluding to it.
The Bubble.
What is this ever-discussed, possibly-mythical, maybe-real-maybe-not place/item/concept? Perhaps your band has been on it, or on the edge of it, or argued about with respect to it. It’s so frequently discussed in practically every conversation about any contest with more prelims groups than will be in finals that there must be some legitimacy to it…right? Surely this is some well-defined idea that directors, judges, and performers all understand, and it is definitively detailed in the adjudication handbooks of every marching band circuit nationwide. Why else would it be a staple of every forum post about every competition and be such a point of contention for certain ones?
To put it simply, “The Bubble” is not real. It isn’t a thing that exists, at least in any official way. Rather than the actual “bubble” created by the NBA back in 2020 to isolate players so that sports could continue despite a rising global pandemic, the Marching Band Bubble is not a place, but instead a concept. It’s any given group of bands at a competition that could make finals but could also be decidedly out of finals. But that disclaimer isn’t given every time it’s mentioned, or really ever unless someone happens to ask. And because asking questions on the internet is a game of juggling fiery batons whilst walking on eggshells, the majority of people just assume rather than inquire. So with that all understood, let’s clear up some of those assumptions and attempt to understand why The Bubble has become so pervasive.
The Bubble is a concept with no flesh or bones or juices
We’ve been over this first point, but let’s get into it a little deeper. When you see the words “the bubble” on a marching band forum, you aren’t seeing something that the judges will ever analyze or classify bands with. It’s purely used in the realm of informal predictions. Derived from the concept of teams being in or out of the playoffs for professional sports, the bubble is just a way to classify bands that could make finals depending on a multitude of factors, such as having an especially good or unfortunate run or simply judges’ preferences. For large competitions, like BOA Super Regionals and Grand Nationals, the bubble may entirely be determined by the strength of the respective panels, which is another confusing concept that deserves its own explanation. It sure would be nice if someone were to write an article about that…
The Bubble is a fun metric to add to predictions, but like all aspects of predictions, it doesn’t really mean anything
For all the reasons mentioned above and so many more, it is impossible to accurately predict the outcome of a live contest outside of reasonable assumptions (you can accurately predict, say, that last year’s Grand National Champion, Broken Arrow, will beat [insert 1A band in their first season of existence ever]). If you have followed literally any marching band contest this season, it’s pretty clear that trying to predict finalists, and their placement order, is a game to be lost, yet we play it every time anyways. In the same way that it’s unreliable to try to predict who exactly will be in finals, there are inevitably those scenarios where a group touted as a “bubble band” will end up squarely out of the top 20 for any number of reasons.
On the other end, certain groups may surpass the bubble by being a “lock,” another commonly used phrase on forums (that also, of course, derives from sports predictions); a group that is so decidedly in that they don’t belong on the bubble. These are your Carmels and Hebrons, bands that go into contests with teeth aching for cold metal, knowing for certain that if they don’t outright win, they’ll at least be on the metaphorical podium. They’re who we all agree will be in finals and are, therefore, “locked in.” The bubble, then, is bands that can’t be locked in but probably should be in. There are more of these than there are placements; therefore, many of them will narrowly miss the cutoff. All the groups that possess that uncertainty (or optimism) are bubble bands, at least in the eyes of people who post about them online.
Is it better to know that you’re on the bubble, or is this a source of disadvantage? As performers, we’re told one fundamental rule when performing on a large stage: do NOT, under ANY circumstances, look at the Jumbotron. The awareness that you’re there, on screen, in front of tens of thousands, breaks focus and wrecks muscle memory, allowing stage fright and insecurity to invade. In the same way, current students of many competitive bands are explicitly instructed to stay away from online band forums at all costs. The idea behind this is that students who read these posts will internalize these expectations: the students who read that they’re a lock may not perform with a sense of urgency and pride, knowing that they’re already expected to win. The students that are left out of the bubble, too, may accept their theoretical placement and not fight for a spot in finals that they very well could earn. Apathy is a far more destructive force than any electronic issues or misplaced props. If that all makes sense, then clearly, the idea of the bubble is harmful to include and should at the least be kept away from performers.
But what about those students who are motivated by the pressure? For the more competitive performer, a spot on the bubble and in an online discussion may light a fire underneath them. It’s a concept enveloped in nuance. And for all of the arguments it births, it never dies, guaranteed to make an appearance on every prediction post for every competition, ever. It is, ultimately, just an opinion wearing a big trenchcoat. It’s fun to think about, but for an activity that puts so much stock into “live performance,” it’s far too unpredictable to mean anything at all, much less to be stressed over. But hey - if it’s enough to draw in audiences to contests and live streams, eager to see the outcomes - and support the bands in the process - it’s good enough to stick around.
Hattie Bartlett is an experienced marching arts content creator making her writing debut with GEM. As a former member of the color guard, she has traveled across the country covering events with WGI and Box5, as well as informally commentating via HornRank. Hattie is currently on staff at the University of Missouri as a field photographer and communications intern. She can be found on Twitter, Instagram, and Tiktok as @ilikeguard.