Probabilistic: The Odds of Making Finals at WGI World Championships
An explanation behind WGI's seeding scores and how history can tell us how guards will fare at World Championships based on their ranking.
In only a few days from today, 319 color guards from 38 states and three countries (Canada, The Netherlands, and the United Kingdom will all be represented!) will descend upon Dayton, Ohio to compete at the 2023 Winter Guard International World Championships. WGI is looking forward to their biggest guard championships since 352 guards attended in 2019, a significant improvement from last year’s, first post-pandemic championships that hosted 272 groups.
For many guards, it will be their final performances of the season, save for those whose state or local circuit has a championship event later in April. And among the 319 guards competing, only 95 will have the honor of calling themselves a finalist when World Championships are said and done. With only the best of the best being named a finalist (and even fewer achieving medalist status), such an accomplishment is difficult to achieve and is well deserved and celebrated by those who earn it.
So exactly what are the odds of making finals at WGI World Championships? No, this won’t be a drawn out article with my hot takes and predictions for where all 319 groups will place. Heck, I’ve seen my fair share of performances this season, but that number pales in comparison to the number of groups that will be in Dayton. Instead, I’m here to explain seeding, how it impacts scheduling, and how it can ultimately point to which guards have the best shot at making finals.
WGI has had a seeding system in place for over a decade now. Essentially, the system assigns a “projected” score for each guard attending World Championships based on their scores at WGI regionals throughout the season and when in the season they compete. Guards are then ranked within their class throughout the season based on the projected scores. Since guards compete at regionals at different points throughout the season and as scores tend to increase week-to-week as guards improve, the projected scores allow groups to be compared more evenly on a roughly similar scale.
The math for finding the projected scores is quite simple - each week is worth 1.5 points times the number of weeks left until the final weekend of the regional season. This point value is then added to each guard’s highest score from the last regional they attend, regardless if their highest score was achieved in prelims or finals. For example, say a guard competed at a regional on February 12, the first weekend of the 2023 season, and earned a score of 75. This weekend is six weeks before the final weekend of the regional season, so their projected score would be 75 + (1.5 x 6) = 84.0. If the same guard competed again on March 18 (one week before the final weekend) and received a high score of 81.5, their new projected score would be updated to 83.0. If they perform at a final regional on March 25 and score an 85, no points are added and their final seeding score is updated to 85.0.
So what happens with the projected score rankings at the end of the regional season before World Championships? This is where things are a little murky. Per the WGI Policy Manual, guards are seeded into different rounds within their class for World Championships prelim schedules based on their final projected score ranking. Since so many guards compete in each class, guards instead compete only within rounds during prelims, and semifinalists are typically determined by taking a certain number of top placing guards from each round. Splitting is also necessary since a class may be split into multiple judging panels and sometimes even venues.
Thereby, using the projected score rankings to seed guards into rounds ensures that the top scoring guards in a class are evenly distributed amongst the rounds and are not inadvertently assigned to the same round. However, there is not a published process that exactly identifies if guards with a specific ranking are assigned a specific prelims round; the only other policy mentioned in the Policy Manual is that “color guards with identical [seeding] scores will be assigned to the same round.”
While seeding scores are used to determine prelims scheduling, they do not, in theory, have an effect on how a group ultimately places at World Championships. Similar to professional sports where the best teams in the regular season must continue to perform at their peak in the playoffs to win a championship, the top seeded guards at World Championships must also have three of their best performances to ensure a final placing that they deserve. However, history can still tell us how a guard may fare at World Championships by using its seeding placement - so here’s where the fun, nerdy number stuff begins.
Let’s take a look at last year’s data where 272 guards competed at the 2022 WGI World Championships, as mentioned earlier. First, let’s break down the classes - here’s a list of number of groups per class, as well as how many advanced to semifinals and finals:
Independent World (IW): 25 total guards, 20 advanced to semifinals, 15 to finals
Independent Open (IO): 32 total guards, 24 advanced to semifinals, 15 to finals
Independent A (IA): 63 total guards, 36 advanced to semifinals, 15 to finals
Scholastic World (SW): 16 total guards, 16 advanced to semifinals, 16 to finals
Scholastic Open (SO): 40 total guards, 24 advanced to semifinals, 15 to finals
Scholastic A (SA): 96 total guards, 56 advanced to semifinals, 20 to finals
Note: Due to a lower than normal number of guards in Scholastic World, WGI allowed all 16 competing groups to advance to semifinals and finals. Therefore, data from that class will not be considered for most metrics reported below.
When it comes to making semifinals, guards that were ranked in a semifinalist spot with their seeding score coming into World Championships were very successful at actually advancing. More specifically, of the 160 semifinalist spots available (excluding SW), 146 guards with a top X ranking (top 20 for IW, top 24 for IO, top 36 for IA, etc) actually advanced to semifinals, or 91.25%. In IW, all top 20 guards actually advanced to semifinals, while 22 of the top 24 advanced in SO and 34 of the top 36 advanced in IA. IO had the lowest percentage with 20 of the top 24 guards advancing, or 83.3%.
For added context, it is also worth mentioning here that some guards that did not compete in a WGI Regional during the season (and thus had a bottom ranked seed) still advanced. In all classes, there were 10 guards that did not have a seeding score coming into World Championships; of these ten, four advanced to semifinals and three of the four semifinalists advanced to finals. That being said, if these guards had competed in a regional during the season, it is likely that they would have a highly ranked seeding score.
Next, we’ll look at finals. The percentage of groups actually making finals after being in a finalist ranked seeding spot was lower than the numbers explained above for semifinals, but only marginally. Of the 80 finalist spots available (again excluding SW), 69 guards with a finals ranked seeding score actually advanced, or 86.25%. IW was the best performing class again with all top 15 ranked guards advancing to finals, while IO and SO advanced the top 14 and 13 guards, respectively. IA and SA had lower percentages, with the top 11 guards in IA (73.3%) and the top 16 guards in SA (80%) advancing to finals.
How did exact seeds fare? Amongst the top eight guards from each of the five classes (again excluding SW), 38 out of 40 guards advanced to finals. Even in SA - a class where it can be so challenging for the judges to score and rank so many competing groups - the highest ranked guard to miss finals was ranked 14th, and the highest ranked guard to miss semifinals was ranked 49th. But despite this consistency, lower ranked guards should not discount their chances; the lowest ranked guards to make finals in SA, IA, and SO were ranked 33rd, 33rd, 21st respectively.
Heck, even when comparing seed rankings with finals rankings, the judges’ consistency is even more noticeable. Amongst the 95 total finalists (we’ll let SW back into the party this time), a remarkable 38 guards finished in the exact same spot or 1 spot lower or higher than their seeding ranking. In fact, in SW, 11 out of 16 guards all finished in the same spot as their seeding ranking, including all top six guards. The average difference between seeding ranking and finals ranking amongst all guards was 1.23.
So what do all of these numbers tell us? I think the main takeaway is that WGI judges are great at their job and most agree across the board and throughout the season at which guards are the best in their respective classes. Likewise, if you’re a performer or staff member with a semifinals or finals ranked guard going into World Championships, rest easy knowing that you have a strong shot at advancing, while of course remembering that every spot is deserved with fantastic performances. And if you’re with a lower ranked guard, all hope is not lost, and you can still impress the judges and sneak into finals with some great runs later this week.
Best of luck to every guard performing at World Championships later this week! General Effect Media is looking forward to watching some amazing performances, sharing some coverage, and see how the results will all unfold less than a week from now.
Marching Arts by the Numbers is a current staff writer and stats guru for General Effect Media. He has been involved in the marching arts activity for nearly two decades in a variety of roles. Marching Arts by the Numbers is his latest project with the vision of being the primary source of statistical information for the marching arts community. You can follow more of his work at @band_scores on Twitter.