From Prediction to Reality
Ahead of the release of our 2023 DCI Preseason Rankings, we look back at our preseason rankings last year, see how we did, and what they can tell us about this upcoming season.
A new Drum Corps International season is upon less! The 2023 season officially kicks off in two days, with five 2022 finalist corps scheduled to perform in Rockford, MI. Seven more shows are scheduled over the weekend in Indiana, California, Wisconsin, Massachusetts, and Illinois, and before we know it, the 2023 season will be in full swing.
With a new season comes new predictions from anyone and everyone who follows the activity. And while it’s pretty apparent that the corps with decades-long streaks of finals appearances will undoubtedly be in the top 12 again, many more questions remain unanswered heading into the season. Will Blue Devils become the first corps in over 20 years to win three consecutive titles? Can Boston Crusaders improve even further after their first top-three finish in 2022 to win the corps’ first-ever DCI World Championship in 2023? With Santa Clara Vanguard not fielding this summer and an open spot in finals up for grabs, which non-finalist corps from 2022 will have the honor of performing in the season's final competition? All of these questions are next to impossible to answer at the moment and may not even be fully answered for another six weeks until the 2023 DCI World Championships.
Before the season begins, we’ll be unveiling our 2023 DCI Preseason Rankings - where we believe the corps will end up ranked by the end of the season as decided on by votes from a panel of GEM writers and contributors. And so, as we prepare for the new season and await to see how the results will actually unfold, we thought it’d be a fun opportunity to look back at our preseason rankings from last year. Some things we got right, some things we weren’t even close to, and some things were somewhere in between. Let’s take a quick look back, see how we did, and determine what it might tell us about our preseason rankings for this year.
GEM's Crystal Ball: 2022 DCI Pre-Season Finals Predictions
The 2022 DCI season will be one of the most fascinating in recent memory, thanks to both the fact that we haven’t had a competitive season since 2019 and that in 2021, only a certain amount of drum corps fielded a show (and some of those that did field a show decided not to make the trip to Indianapolis in August). It has made our annual prognostication…
What we got right
Blue Devils winning the 2022 DCI World Championships. With how dominant Blue Devils have been over the past decade and a half, this prediction seemed like a pretty easy no-brainer. But remember, the 2022 season was unique in that it was the first competitive season in three years following the canceled season in 2020 and the abbreviated exhibition-only season in 2021. Blue Devils were amongst a handful of corps that did not field a touring group in 2021, which meant a large majority of their 2022 membership was brand new to the organization. It was not a given that a lesser-experienced version of the Blue Devils could necessarily dominate a season as their predecessors did. But they would go on to do just that, completing an undefeated season en route to their 20th title and 9th since 2007.
Bluecoats in second place. Well, this one we technically got right, even if it meant that Bluecoats ultimately shared second place with the Boston Crusaders. After Bluecoats and Blue Devils went back and forth for much of the 2019 season, it was thought that Bluecoats would likely end up as a medalist again in 2022. And when the season began in Detroit, Bluecoats came out ahead of Boston and would beat them again a few weeks later when the two corps met each other next. However, Boston eventually pulled ahead in Texas and would not relinquish second place for most of the season. Well, not until finals week, at least; after the Crusaders again finished ahead of Bluecoats in prelims, the two corps tied in semifinals and - in probably one of the most improbable occurrences in DCI history - tied again on finals night.
Santa Clara Vanguard in fifth place. In 2018, Vanguard put together arguably one of the most innovative and memorable shows in the past decade, which earned them their first title in nearly 20 years. Despite this success, they fell back a few spots and finished third the following season. Coming into the 2022 season, they were in a similar position as Blue Devils, having not fielded in 2021 and facing a lot of unknowns about how they would fare. And with the added momentum from corps like Bluecoats, Boston Crusaders, and Carolina Crown, fifth felt like a safe prediction that eventually proved to be true.
Lapsed Fan's Guide to DCI 2023
It’s Friday, June 23rd, which means the start of the 2023 DCI Summer Tour is just around the corner! We’re bringing back the Lapsed Fan’s Guide to DCI so that you can enter the Midwest Premiere on June 28th with every bit of knowledge you need to back up your hot takes on who returns to finals this year, as well as what corps takes home the Founders tro…
What we got wrong
Boston Crusaders in fourth place. Since Boston completely revamped much of their staff ahead of the 2017 season, the corps has been on an upward trajectory that pushed them to three consecutive top-six finishes from 2017 to 2019. In 2021, Boston was arguably one of the strongest and most talented corps that fielded in the non-competitive season. It was projected that BAC would continue to ride that momentum in 2022 and set new records for the corps’ highest placement ever. However, few of us thought they would finish near the top as a silver medalist. Despite eventually tying with Bluecoats on finals night, Boston held a lock on second place for the latter half of the season and even came within two-tenths of beating the Blue Devils at the Southeastern Championships in Atlanta.
Every corps placed sixth through tenth. This competitive grouping was one of the most entertaining to follow last year. The Cavaliers and Blue Stars were looking to improve on strings of top 6 and 8th place finishes, respectively. At the same time, The Cadets and Phantom Regiment aimed to rebound from seasons that were otherwise substandard for their organizations’ histories. The drama was further intensified when The Cavaliers and Phantom Regiment each had to withdraw from a handful of shows in early July due to covid outbreaks amongst their membership. After a bunch of back-and-forth competition throughout the season (which even saw Mandarins ahead of Phantom and Cavaliers at different points), the five corps finished as follows:
6th: The Cadets who finished in the top 6 for the first time since 2016
7th: Blue Stars who earned their highest placement in nearly 40 years
8th: Phantom Regiment who broke 90 and beat Cavaliers for the first time since 2015
9th: The Cavaliers who unfortunately fell to 9th for only the second time since 1984
10th: Mandarins who finished as a finalist and in 10th place for the third consecutive year
Troopers and Colts out of finals. Another entertaining storyline in the 2022 season was the race for the last few spots in finals. Close competition kept Colts, Troopers, Crossmen, and Blue Knights in the mix for most of the season. When the four corps met for the first time in San Antonio, the Blue Knights, Crossmen, and Colts all finished within a point of each other while Troopers were behind the pack by another 1.2. However, late-season surges by Colts and Troopers propelled each to the top of the pack, and when the dust settled, the two corps each earned their first finals appearance in over a decade. As a result, Blue Knights unfortunately were left out of finals for the first time since 2003, while Crossmen missed for the second time since 2012.
How did the final results differ from the predictions?
So we decided to put our predictions up against the final results from last year just to see how things stack up. For extra fun, we took the predictions we got from the r/drumcorps subreddit, and compared those as well. Let us know your thoughts!
What can the results from last year tell us about predictions for this year?
The biggest point that goes without saying is that drum corps placements are challenging to predict accurately. Sure, history can tell us a broad range of placements that may be possible for each corps, given where they finished in the prior season and any significant staff changes they experienced between seasons. And yes, we’ll still hear "slotting" cries when some fans claim that placements are decided after the second week of the season. But even so, things like corps making late-season surges to sneak into finals or two corps tying for second place on two consecutive nights in the final shows of the season are next to impossible to project.
And that’s what makes this activity so fun to follow. Rankings are fun to put together, and we can hear all the opinions and hot takes on how corps will fare for the upcoming season, but the real fun will be had when we watch the season and competition unfold over the next six weeks.
“bandScores” is a current staff writer and stats guru for General Effect Media. He has been involved in the marching arts activity for nearly two decades. bandScores is his passion project with the mission of being the primary source of statistical information for the marching arts community. You can follow more of his work at @band_scores on Twitter.